Temperature Shocks, CO₂ Emissions and Agricultural Output in Nigeria

Agriculture contributes about 23–25% of Nigeria’s GDP and employs roughly 35% of the workforce, yet its heavy dependence on rainfall makes it highly vulnerable to climate shocks. This study examines the effects of climate change, measured by mean annual temperature and annual rainfall, on agricultural output in Nigeria (1986- 2024), while controlling for per capita CO₂ emissions and population growth. It determines the order of integration of the variables and tests for cointegration. It estimates short-run and long-run dynamics using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds-testing approach of Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001), supported by unit-root, diagnostic, and stability tests. The results confirm a stable long-run relationship among the variables. Temperature and CO₂ emissions have positive effects on agricultural output in both the short and long run, consistent with Nigeria’s stage of development and the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Rainfall has a positive long-run effect but a negative short-run effect, revealing the structural fragility of Nigeria’s rain-fed agricultural system. The study recommends urgent investment in irrigation, climate-smart agriculture, and low-carbon development, with coordinated action by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, the Central Bank of Nigeria, and domestic climate-finance institutions to strengthen resilience and productivity. Keywords: Agricultural output; ARDL bounds test; Climate change; Temperature.