The Double-Edged Sword of Commercialization: Food Security Implications Amid Heterogeneous Shocks in Malawi

Malawi’s Vision 2063 identifies agricultural transformation as central to achieving economic growth and improved livelihoods. This study examines the causal impact of crop commercialization on household food security among smallholder farmers, with particular attention to the role of multiple shocks. Using data from the Fifth Integrated Household Survey (IHS5), the analysis applies quasi-experimental techniques to address both selection bias and endogeneity. Households engaged in commercialization are first matched with those below the commercialization threshold, after which an Instrumental Variable approach is employed to control for endogeneity. The main explanatory variables in the study were the Household Commercialization Index (HCI) and its interaction with the shock index. Food security was measured using the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), Food Consumption Score (FCS), and Reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI). Results indicate that commercialization in the presence of multiple shocks exacerbates food insecurity, as households experience declines in their Food Consumption Score by 17.5 units and increases in the Reduced Coping Strategy Index by 35.5 units, reflecting greater reliance on coping strategies to buffer against hunger. Notably, this study also finds no evidence that commercialization alone improves HDDS, pointing to a trade-off between income gains and dietary quality. These findings highlight the need for policies that integrate market participation with resilience-building and nutrition-sensitive interventions to safeguard food security in shock-prone contexts. This study also suggests that while agricultural commercialization can offer economic benefits, its impact on food security is complex and context-dependent.