The Effect of Peer-to-Peer Risk Information on Potential Migrants - Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Senegal

In response to mounting evidence of the dangers of irregular migration from Africa to Europe, the number of information campaigns designed to raise awareness of the potential risks has rapidly increased. Governments, international organizations and civil society organizations implement a variety of campaigns to counter misinformation spread by smuggling and trafficking networks. The evidence on the effects of such information interventions on potential migrants remains limited and largely anecdotal. More generally, the role of risk perceptions for the decision-making process of potential irregular migrants is rarely explicitly tested while the concept of risk pervades conventional migration models, particularly in the field of economics. We address this gap by providing causal evidence of the effects of a peer-to-peer information intervention on the perceptions, knowledge and intentions of potential migrants in Dakar, Senegal, using a randomized controlled trial design. The results show that – three months after the intervention – peer-to-peer information events about risks increased potential migrants’ subjective information levels, raised risk perceptions; and reduced intentions to migrate irregularly. We found no substantial effects on factual migration knowledge. We discuss how the effects may be driven by the trust and identification-enhancing nature of peer-to-peer communication.