The Effect of Violence on Food Markets: Evidence from Nigeria

Violent conflict is an increasingly pervasive global threat to livelihoods and food security, affecting a growing share of the world’s population. At the same time, food supply chains across Africa are rapidly expanding, serving as critical conduits for food access, employment, and income generation. Yet the midstream segments of food supply chains (such as trading and processing), which are also vulnerable to conflict-related disruptions, are understudied generally, and particularly in conflict-affected settings. Leveraging a unique dataset on food wholesale markets across Nigeria, we examine how exposure to violence in surrounding communities and within market spaces shapes market functioning. Our results show that while aggregate local fatalities do not significantly affect market outcomes, specific conflict events, especially riots and protests, are associated with measurable declines in food availability. Market-based violence has particularly pronounced effects: each additional violent crime within a market is associated, on average, with a roughly two-percentage-point reduction in food supply. We further show that the types and intensity of violent events affecting markets vary markedly across regions within the country. Our results highlight differentiated effects of violence types and locations on market performance and underscore the importance of strengthening supply chain resilience to support food security and economic stability. 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri