The map behind the roadmap: Introducing a geospatial energy model for utility-scale solar and wind power buildout

In many regions, energy models are pointing towards variable renewable energy (VRE), mainly solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, as potential backbone of future power systems. However, such models have not typically been able to explicitly include, from the outset, geospatial aspects around future VRE power plant siting in the cost-optimisation. For instance, should one build far from the grid in search of excellent resources, or rather stay close to existing infrastructure to keep costs low? Here, we present an OSeMOSYS-FlexTool workflow for capacity expansion and dispatch optimisation that explicitly includes the geospatial dimension of VRE buildout. Applying the model to Kenya, we identify clear but nontrivial links between site characteristics and siting preferences in the optimisation results, which moreover differ markedly for solar PV and wind power. This highly replicable approach has important implications for power system planning, especially in countries whose grids will be VRE-heavy in the future.

This paper has been written with the support of the Climate Compatible Growth Programme (#CCG) of the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) and the UK PACT (Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions) programme, funded by the UK government. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies.
S.S. gratefully acknowledges funding from the ClimateWorks Foundation, the African Climate Foundation, and the European Climate Foundation. A.H. acknowledges funding from the Horizon Europe R&I programme project IAM COMPACT (grant no. 101056306). The content of this paper does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the European Commission, and the responsibility for it lies solely with its authors.
All authors acknowledge the work done by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), where both the FlexTool and the concept of Model Supply Regions were originally developed.
All authors further acknowledge the helpful comments and suggestions from Sylvana Bohrt and Meron Tesfamichael (World Resources Institute) and Rose Dortch (Energy Transitions Commission, part of SystemIQ).