The Political-Economic Devastation of Sudan's Civil War (2023-2026)

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic effects of the war in Sudan that erupted on April 15, 2023, examining the historical antecedents, macroeconomic collapse, war economy dynamics, agricultural sector devastation, fiscal instability, humanitarian consequences, and prospects for reconstruction. Drawing on World Bank, UNDP, African Development Bank, and UK government data, the analysis documents how the conflict has precipitated one of the most severe economic contractions in recent history. Real GDP plummeted by nearly 40 percent between 2022 and 2024, wiping out more than three decades of development progress. Average incomes have dropped to levels last seen in 1992, while extreme poverty has surged from 48 percent to 59 percent of the population between 2023 and 2025. The paper examines the collapse of productive sectors-particularly agriculture, which has seen cereal production fall 46 percent in the first year alone-alongside the disintegration of fiscal capacity, inflation peaking at 218 percent in August 2024 , and the erosion of public institutions. Particular attention is paid to the war economy, including the role of illicit gold smuggling estimated at billions of dollars annually, which has become the primary engine financing both belligerent parties. The analysis considers the humanitarian catastrophe affecting 11.7 million displaced persons and over 21 million facing acute food insecurity. The paper concludes by evaluating reconstruction challenges, estimating costs between $500 billion and $1 trillion, and identifying conditions necessary for sustainable recovery, including good governance, institutional reform, and integration of productive sectors.