The Thwarted Resilience Trap: Political Survival, External Stabilization, and Structural Non-Transformation in Fragile States

This article examines the effects of political shocks on growth and structural transformation in a context of persistent fragility, using Mali as a case study for the period 1990-2023. It employs a counterfactual strategy combining synthetic control methods and time-series analysis to estimate Mali's trajectories in the absence of the 2012 shock. The findings reveal a robust decoupling: the shock generates a negative but transitory effect on growth, while producing a persistent deterioration in structural transformation. This divergence indicates that macroeconomic resilience does not translate into a dynamic of productive transformation. To interpret this result, the article develops the framework of the thwarted resilience trap, in which stabilization mechanisms, especially external ones, relax short-term constraints while weakening incentives for the accumulation of capabilities. The results are consistent with this mechanism, without establishing strict causal identification. The article thus redefines resilience as a nonmonotonic property and proposes an interpretation based on an intertemporal trade-off.