Transition Pathways for Botswana: Comparative Scenario Analysis under National Development and Climate Commitments

This study evaluates alternative power-sector transition pathways for Botswana using the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) and assesses how national electricity planning can align with climate commitments while maintaining a least-cost system development. Botswana’s electricity supply is currently heavily coal-dependent, creating a policy misalignment between the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15% by 2030.

Three scenarios were analysed for 2022–2050: an NDC 15% emissions-reduction scenario, and a more ambitious scenario targeting 50% renewable electricity by 2036. The baseline pathway locks the system into coal reliance and high emissions. In contrast, emissions-constrained scenarios shift the generation mix toward solar and wind, demonstrating that Botswana can meet its NDC target within a least-cost framework through accelerated deployment of renewables.

Achieving climate targets increases annualised investment costs by roughly 22–26% but requires more than doubling installed capacity, largely driven by utility-scale solar expansion. Importantly, the modest cost increase indicates that Botswana’s current NDC target is economically non-binding and insufficient to drive deep structural change.

Increased emissions targets, the rollout of renewables, and investment in storage and grid flexibility are essential to avoid long-term coal lock-in and to align power-sector planning with Botswana’s renewable resource potential.