Two Streams, Two Logics: Determinants of Chinese High-Tech Imports in Africa

This article examines China–Africa economic relations as embodied in technology transfer, using African imports of Chinese high-technology products as a proxy. It argues that technology trade is heterogeneous and distinguishes two streams of manufactured products: electronics and electrical (MTCE), and other high-tech products (MTCO). Using a gravity model estimated with Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) on a panel of 53 African economies across five UN regions from 2016 to 2021, it relates imports to partner size, trade frictions and structural conditions (labour supply, productivity, resource rents and the development gap vis-à-vis China). Gravity drivers remain important, but their significance and magnitude differ sharply by stream and region: distance is negative for MTCO yet positive for MTCE, while GDP and structural controls display stream-specific and region-specific effects. The results imply that aggregate high-tech import measures only partially capture technology transfer dynamics and that “technology” enters African economies through distinct trade channels with different implications for upgrading and dependency.