Vegetation Cover Change and Non-Timber Forest Product Availability: Implications for Rural Livelihoods in Jubaland, Somalia

Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) contribute significantly to rural livelihoods in dryland ecosystems, yet vegetation cover changes threaten their long-term availability. This study examines the dynamics of land use and land cover change in Jubaland State, Somalia, and assesses implications for NTFP availability and household livelihoods. Using Landsat satellite imagery (2010-2022) analyzed through supervised classification with the Maximum Likelihood Classifier, combined with household surveys (n=132), focus group discussions (n=3), and key informant interviews (n=5), we quantified vegetation changes and their socioeconomic impacts. Results show that scrub/shrub vegetation increased by 672,028 ha (annual rate +0.68%), while forest cover declined dramatically from 2,208,660 ha (19.77%) to 1,503,850 ha (13.46%), a loss of 704,810 ha at an annual deforestation rate of -3.49%. Cultivated areas expanded by 11,667 ha (+1.70% annually), and built-up areas increased by 3,579 ha (+3.27% annually). Community perceptions identified tree cutting (100% of respondents) and charcoal production as primary deforestation drivers. NTFP species including Acacia senegal, Adansonia digitata, Ziziphus spina-christi, and Commiphora myrrha were reported as declining in availability. Over 65% of households depend on NTFPs for subsistence, with 30% deriving cash income from NTFP sales. Inter-state and international trade were dominated by males (85%), while women dominate local processing (90%) and retailing in local markets (99%). However, women face governance constraints including informal taxation and limited market access. We recommend integrating NTFP species into agroforestry systems, strengthening customary governance through 'xeer' revitalization, and establishing state-level dryland forest research centers to support sustainable resource management.