When Growth Does Not Guarantee Electrification: Evidence from a developing country in SSA

Universal electricity access remains a primary development objective in Sub-Saharan Africa. Conventional economic theory suggests that macroeconomic growth and structural transformation accelerate infrastructure expansion. This study examines whether economic growth translates into short-run electrification in Zambia using annual data from 1990 to 2024. The analysis employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach alongside nested short-run dynamic models with Newey-West standard errors. The results provide no evidence of a stable longrun level relationship between electricity access and standard development indicators. In the short run, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, urbanization, and industrialization do not exhibit a statistically detectable relationship with annual changes in electricity access. Electrification exhibits negative temporal dependence, suggesting partial reversal in annual expansion rates independent of macroeconomic fluctuations. Foreign direct investment displays weak evidence of a negative association with short-run access expansion. These findings suggest that electrification in Zambia follows an independent infrastructure trajectory rather than responding mechanically to economic growth. Policymakers could consider direct, infrastructure-specific financing mechanisms rather than relying on broad economic expansion to deliver universal access.