A Bayesian Nonparametric Modeling Approach to Settlement Patterns of Pastoralists Population in Kenya

International audience Pastoralists' settlement patterns in Kenya have been studied for decades using various statistical and mathematical models. However, traditional models have often relied on restrictive assumptions, such as the normality of the data or the linearity of relationships. In this paper, we apply a Bayesian nonparametric approach to model the settlement patterns of pastoralists in Kenya, allowing for more flexible and realistic representations of the data. We first collected settlement data for pastoralists in Kenya and compiled a database of environmental covariates, such as distance to water sources, vegetation cover, and road networks. We then applied a Bayesian nonparametric clustering method to identify distinct settlement patterns and tested the performance of the model against other commonly used clustering techniques. Our results indicate that the Bayesian nonparametric approach outperforms other clustering techniques in terms of model fit and accuracy in identifying distinct settlement patterns. Additionally, we conducted a spatial regression analysis to investigate the relationship between settlement patterns and environmental covariates, revealing that distance to water sources and road networks are significant predictors of settlement patterns. Overall, our study highlights the usefulness of Bayesian nonparametric methods in modelling settlement patterns of pastoralists in Kenya and provides valuable insights into the relationship between environmental factors and settlement patterns.