A Global-to-Local Framework for Food Waste: Sustainable Gains and Equity Challenges

Reducing food waste (FW) is a key strategy for achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including food security (SDG 2), responsible consumption and production (SDG 12), climate action (SDG 13), and economic growth (SDG 8). While enhancing sustainability, FW reduction also introduces economic trade-offs, particularly in labor-intensive agricultural sectors. This study employs a multiscale modeling framework to assess both global sustainability gains and localized economic challenges. At the global scale, a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) estimates FW as household technical inefficiency, and these estimates are integrated into the Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land Use, and the Environment (SIMPLE). A 50% reduction in FW by 2050, aligned with SDG 12.3, reduces cropland use by 3% and lowers annual greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 1.5 gigatons, easing pressure on natural resources. These changes also lead to lower global crop prices (6.8%–8%), improving food affordability and reducing undernourishment, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (7.6 million fewer undernourished individuals) and South Asia (4 million fewer).At the local scale, the Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land Use, and the Environment – Gridded version (SIMPLE-G-US) evaluates the effects of FW reduction on U.S. agricultural water use and labor markets. Irrigation water use declines by an average of 5.6%, with reductions up to 11.6% in water-scarce regions, contributing to water conservation efforts. However, FW reduction also results in a 4.25%–11.8% decline in agricultural employment, with wage losses of up to $3 per hour, particularly in labor-intensive regions like the Fruitful Rim. These findings highlight the need for coordinated policies that maximize sustainability benefits while addressing economic equity concerns, ensuring that FW reduction strategies support both environmental and social well-being. 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27 - 29, 2025, Denver, Colorado