A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF CHIKUNGUNYA TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS: AN APPLICATION TO DATA FROM CHAD

Chikungunya is a vector-borne disease transmitted to humans by female Aedes mosquitoes, particularly Aedes albopictus. In this study, we develop a mathematical model to describe the transmission dynamics of chikungunya between humans and mosquito vectors, incorporating the effects of treatment interventions. We derive the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$, which serves as a threshold parameter to characterize disease dynamics and establish the positivity and boundedness of solutions. Our analysis shows that the disease can be effectively controlled when $\mathcal{R}_0 < 1$. Parameter estimation is carried out using epidemiological data to inform strategies aimed at reducing secondary infections. Although no specific antiviral treatment currently exists, supportive care including the use of antibiotics for secondary infections is considered. We perform a detailed qualitative analysis of the model and conduct numerical simulations to assess the potential impact of treatment strategies and vector control measures. The results offer valuable insights into the conditions necessary for the control and possible eradication of chikungunya, particularly in the context of public health planning in affected regions such as Chad.