A Mathematical Modeling Approach to Tourism Destination Analysis in Nigeria Using the Tourism Attractiveness Index

Tourism is a critical driver of economic growth, yet Nigeria’s tourism sector remains underutilized despite its rich natural and cultural assets. This study applies a mathematical modeling approach to evaluate tourism destination performance in Nigeria. A quantitative model incorporating accessibility, infrastructure, security, and cost is developed to estimate tourism demand. Using selected case studies, including Obudu Mountain Resort, Yankari National Park, and Lekki Conservation Centre, the study constructs a Tourism Attractiveness Index (TAI) and a regression based demand model. Results indicate that accessibility and cost are the most significant determinants of tourism inflow, while high travel costs negatively impact demand. The study concludes that tourism development in Nigeria is fundamentally an optimization problem requiring strategic investment in infrastructure and security.