A Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Results-Based Financing on Energy Access: Understanding the Drivers of Success and Policy Implications for Uganda

Results-Based Financing (RBF) has become one of the most important instruments for accelerating energy access in developing countries. However, despite widespread adoption across off-grid solar, mini-grids, clean cooking, and productive-use systems, evidence on the effectiveness of different RBF designs remains fragmented. This study undertook a global meta-analysis of RBF interventions using a structured evidence synthesis framework combining random-effects meta-analysis, subgroup analysis, meta-regression, heterogeneity decomposition, cumulative evidence assessment, prediction intervals, and Uganda-specific transferability analysis. The final dataset included 28 studies retained after quality filtering, covering Africa, Asia, Latin America, Pacific Islands, MENA, Europe/Central Asia, and global multi-country programmes. The overall pooled effect size was 0.345 (95% CI: 0.316–0.374; p < 0.001), indicating that RBF has a statistically significant positive effect on energy access outcomes globally. Technology-specific analysis showed that mini-grids (0.390) and off-grid solar (0.371) produced the strongest impacts, while clean cooking interventions showed more moderate but still positive effects (0.273). Moderator analysis demonstrated that consumer finance and after-sales support were the strongest statistically significant drivers of success. The study further developed a Uganda Transferability Index and Implementation-Readiness Framework to identify the most policy-relevant RBF models for Uganda’s EASP, ASCENT, Mission 300, UECCC, mini-grid, and clean cooking programmes. The findings strongly support a transition from connection-based subsidies toward digitally verified, productive-use-oriented, sustained-use RBF systems integrated with PAYGo, carbon finance, and consumer affordability mechanisms.