A model of dual latency compartments for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Oyo state, Nigeria

In this study, a mathematical model of dual latency compartments is developed to investigate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic in Oyo state, Nigeria. The model consists of non-pharmaceutical control strategies which include the use of face masks, social-distancing and impact of mass-media on the spread of novel coronavirus in the state. Results indicate control reproduction number \(R_C = 1.4\) with possibilities of high constructive influence of mass-media. Thus, at the fitted values of \(\sigma _f = 0.1,\; \sigma _d = 0.1,\;\sigma _m = 0.6\), the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic is attained after 59,217 infectious quarantined individuals and 328,440 infectious but not quarantined individuals have contracted COVID-19 in about 439 and 443 days respectively from the date of the first incidence. Therefore, efforts on mass-media with programs that can inform the people on effective use of face masks, social-distancing and other safety measures can aid reduction of reproduction number to a value below 1 necessary for eradication of the disease.