A physical basis for the interannual variability of rainfall in the Sahel

Abstract A major factor in rainfall variability over Sahelian West Africa is the latitudinal location of the tropical rainbelt. When it is displaced abnormally far northward, the Sahel experiences a wet year. An anomalous southward displacement results in drought. In this paper we examine the question of what controls the location during the boreal summer, hypothesizing that inertial instability plays a role. An analysis of surface pressure and temperature fields, wind fields, divergence and vertical motion show that the criteria for inertial instability are satisfied in wet Augusts but not in dry ones. The key determinant appears to be the surface pressure gradient between the continent and the equatorial Atlantic. When this is large, inertial instability results in the development of a low‐level westerly jet. The presence of this jet enhances the horizontal and vertical shear, and displaces the African Easterly Jet northwestward. Associated with this situation is strong vertical motion over the Sahel and subsidence over the Guinea Coast, producing dry conditions over the latter. The result is a rainfall dipole, one of two major modes of variability over West Africa. Important factors include sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Atlantic and pressure in the South Atlantic. The first of these factors suggests a link with the Atlantic Niño mode of tropical Atlantic variability; while the second suggests a possible link with the Pacific and the extratropical South Atlantic. Overall, our study relates the well‐known SST influence on Sahel rainfall to atmospheric dynamics over the continent. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society