A System Dynamics Model of the Adoption of Improved Agricultural Inputs in Uganda, with Insights for Systems Approaches to Development

Designing international development projects is challenging because the complexity of the systems on which they act makes it difficult to identify the best leverage points for intervention. This paper seeks to identify the best combinations of interventions to increase the availability of and demand for quality seeds in Uganda and similar markets. A system dynamics model simulates the current dynamics in Ugandan seed markets based on data gathered by ongoing development projects. The findings show that one intervention is critical to enabling growth—investing in a system for verifying the quality of seeds—and that a combination of quality verification with education-oriented interventions is more powerful than quality verification alone. The results have implications for systems approaches to development: they suggest that a combination of interventions in different parts of the value chain enables larger changes than any single intervention alone.