African Applied Forest Ecology (Forestry/Environmental): a comparative evidence study of ENT pathways, implementation constraints, and policy implications in Africa

The present analysis reframes competing forest futures in Africa through Encroachment–Natural regeneration–Timber plantation (ENT) pathways and proposes a spatial method for distinguishing where each pathway is ecologically plausible and socially workable. Comparative synthesis across miombo, Guineo-Congolian and East African montane systems suggests that encroachment, spontaneous regeneration and plantation expansion respond to different combinations of biophysical susceptibility and institutional access rather than to deforestation in general. To make that distinction operational, the article develops the Forest Ecological Transition Susceptibility Index (FETSI), the composite spatial index used here, from seven criteria, namely Slope, Drainage density, Rainfall intensity, Land cover, Soil permeability, Elevation and Distance to channels, and situates its application in Malawi as an illustrative landscape. The geographic information systems workflow standardises criteria, derives weights, aggregates the index and examines access through buffers and connectivity, as documented in the analysis workflow (Script 1). The framework predicts where restoration is biophysically favoured but institutionally constrained and clarifies trade-offs for extension, land allocation and plantation licensing.