Decision-based Bayesian Networks (BN) were developed to generate plausible estimates of annual food and nutrition contributions of planting fruit trees in Kenya and transitioning from homegardens to large-scale commercial agriculture in Uganda. Participatory workshops were held with a diversity of local experts and academics. Facilitators used group-work techniques to include the knowledge of all participants and collectively aim for consensus. Results of the BN models indicate that planting fruit trees in Kenya will have a positive impact on nutrition and food security. However, the model developed in Uganda shows a high probability that the nutrition status of households will be negatively affected by the planned agricultural development in Uganda’s National Development plan.
References
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Hubbard, D. W., 2014. How To Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business. John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey.
Luedeling, E., and Shepherd, K., 2016. Decision-Focused Agricultural Research, Solutions, 46-54.
Luedeling, E., Oord, A. L., Kiteme, B., Ogalleh, S., Malesu, M., Shepherd, K. D., and De Leeuw, J., 2015. Fresh groundwater for Wajir - ex-ante assessment of uncertain benefits for multiple stakeholders in a water supply project in Northern Kenya, Front. Environ. Sci., 3, 241.