Agricultural Expenditure, Insecurity and Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study examined the effect of agricultural expenditure and insecurity on economic growth in Nigeria for the period of 1986-2024. It applied Descriptive statistics, unit root test and Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) for the data analysis and the data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletins 2024 and World Bank Development Indicators (WDI, 2025). The unit root results indicated mixed order of integration which necessitated the choice of ARDL technique. Furthermore, the main result showed that long-run equilibrium exists among the studied variables. It also showed that Agriculture Expenditure (AEX) has positive and significant effect on economic growth that is one percent increase in AEX, GDP will increase by 7.9%. More to that, the result also indicated that Insecurity (INS) has negative and significant effect on economic growth that is one percent increase in INS, GDP will decrease by 4.9%. On the other hand, the control variables which are exchange rate and inflation have negative coefficients which reveal inverse relationships to RGDP. Thus, these results agreed with appriori expectation of inverse relationships between EXR, INF and RGDP. On the short-run results, the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) showed the speed of adjustment to the deviation in the short run equilibrium. The negative value of the coefficient implies that there is a long run equilibrium among variables. More to that, the coefficient of ECM which is (-0.754034) indicated that the model will adjust by 75% of the equilibrium in the long run. At this point, -0.754034 implied that when there is a state of disequilibrium among the variables this phenomenon would be adjusted back to equilibrium in one (1) year and five (5) months. Furthermore, this study rejected the null hypotheses and hence concluded that, Agricultural Expenditure and insecurity had statistically significant effect on economic growth in Nigeria and there is long-run relationship among Real Growth Domestic Product (RGDP), Agriculture Expenditure (AEX), Insecurity (INS), Inflation Rate (INF), and Exchange Rate (EXR) in the Nigerian economy. Therefore, this study recommended that, Federal government should progressively increase agricultural expenditure to meet (and exceed) the Maputo Declaration target of 10% of national budget allocation. This should focus on: Modernizing agricultural infrastructure (irrigation systems, storage facilities), Subsidizing improved seedlings and fertilizers, Enhancing extension services and farmer education programs and Establish a special agricultural development fund with transparent monitoring mechanisms to ensure proper utilization of funds. Government should address insecurity challenges by implementing integrated security strategies such as Community policing in farming communities, Special agro-ranger security units, Conflict resolution frameworks for farmer-herder disputes and Develop an agricultural insurance scheme to mitigate losses from insecurity