Agricultural Growth and Direct Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions in North Africa: A Decoupling and Decomposition Analysis (1999–2024)

Reconciling agricultural growth with lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is central to the sustainability of food systems exposed to climatic constraints. In North Africa, the relationship between agricultural value added and direct non-CO₂ emissions remains insufficiently documented. This study examines the decoupling between agricultural value added and direct agricultural methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia over 1999–2024, using a balanced panel drawn from the World Development Indicators. We combine the Tapio decoupling elasticity with an additive logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition based on an agriculture-adapted Kaya identity. This framework decomposes observed emission changes into emission-intensity, structural, real GDP-per-capita, and population effects. Egypt and Tunisia exhibit strong decoupling over the full period, whereas Algeria and Morocco show weak decoupling. In all four countries, the emission-intensity effect is the main downward accounting component, while real GDP-per-capita and population effects exert upward pressure and the structural effect varies across countries. Gas-specific results show that strong aggregate decoupling in Egypt and Tunisia coincides with declining CH₄ emissions, whereas N₂O remains in a weak-decoupling configuration. Results are robust to alternative time boundaries and sub-period partitions, although classifications require caution where agricultural value added changes little or falls. The findings support separate monitoring of CH₄ and N₂O in agricultural mitigation strategies.