AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AND POVERTY IN NIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM THE TODA–YAMAMOTO CAUSALITY APPROACH

Despite agriculture contributing about one-quarter of Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employing more than one-third of the labour force, multidimensional poverty remains pervasive. Using annual data for 1982–2024 (43 observations), this study examines the causal relationship between agricultural output and poverty in Nigeria, with the Human Development Index (HDI) serving as a multidimensional proxy for poverty. The Toda–Yamamoto causality framework is employed because of its robustness to the integration and cointegration properties of time-series variables. thereby avoiding the pre-test bias associated with conventional Granger causality analysis.The empirical findings reveal a bidirectional causal relationship between agricultural output and HDI, suggesting that improvements in agricultural production enhance human development through increased food availability, employment, and rural incomes, while improvements in education, health, and living standards simultaneously strengthen agricultural productivity.  This feedback mechanism underscores the complementary and interdependent nature of agricultural performance and poverty reduction in Nigeria. The study concludes that agricultural development and poverty reduction are mutually reinforcing and recommends an integrated policy framework that simultaneously promotes agricultural productivity, human capital development, rural employment, and improved access to agricultural finance to achieve sustainable poverty reduction in Nigeria.