AI-Enabled Physical Internet Readiness and Sustainable Healthcare Supply Chain Performance in Egypt: A Monte Carlo Scenario Simulation

This Monte Carlo study evaluates four synthetic healthcare supply chain capability scenarios: baseline, artificial intelligence (AI) only, Physical Internet (PI) only, and integrated AI + PI. Each scenario was replicated 300 times under stochastic demand surge and disruption intensity. The integrated scenario increased mean fill rate from 76.2% to 92.8%, reduced lead time from 5.49 to 3.70 days, reduced expiry waste from 10.1% to 6.3%, lowered the emissions index from 105.7 to 85.7, and shortened recovery from 13.6 to 7.7 days. The large modeled gains reflect explicit scenario assumptions and validate comparative simulation logic. They are not empirical estimates for Egypt’s healthcare system.