Algeria's Energy Crossroads: Gas Pricing Reform, Renewable Integration, and Export Potential

This case study modelled Algeria's electricity generation mix to 2050 under alternative natural gas pricing pathways using OSeMOSYS. The central lesson is that gas pricing is a powerful but incomplete lever for Algeria's energy transition: cheap, subsidised gas keeps renewable deployment marginal, while cost-reflective pricing triggers a substantial redirection of investment toward renewables and a meaningful reduction in emissions, yet gas remains dominant in every scenario, and the higher-renewables pathway remains costlier than business as usual even after crediting the export value of gas freed up domestically. The report recommends that Algerian policymakers pursue gradual, phased gas price reform paired with targeted renewable investment support, and that future analysis quantify the fiscal, export and energy-security value of freed-up gas alongside direct system costs, so that the full economic case for transition, not only the narrow generation-cost comparison is visible to decision-makers