An Analysis of Factors Predicting Education-Job Mismatch among Graduate Employees in Central Uganda: A Multinomial Approach

In this study, we sought to explore the risk factors associated with education-occupation mismatch among graduates in Central Uganda. We specifically focused on factors predicting appropriate match, over-education, and under-education. The study took a quantitative approach and adopted a Cross-sectional design. The unit of analysis was graduates in Kampala and Wakiso District who had completed their studies at universities, colleges, and other degree-awarding institutions between 2000 and 2024. A survey questionnaire was used to collect data from a random sample of 382 graduates employed across various occupations. At a descriptive level, 60.7% of the participants indicated that they were appropriately matched, while a third (33.8%) felt overeducated for their jobs. Only 5.5% reported being undereducated. We modelled the data using a multinomial logistic regression, and from the analysis, the risk of perceiving oneself as overeducated increases with higher academic attainment, from bachelor’s to doctoral levels and being employed in roles that do not require one’s qualifications. This risk is also pronounced among graduates with degrees in STEM disciplines. In contrast, the likelihood of being mismatched was significantly lower for graduates who studied courses of their first choice and for those who regarded their education as fully relevant to their work. Additionally, individuals employed in positions requiring only a general degree or no degree at all were more vulnerable to mismatch compared to those in jobs that specifically demanded their qualifications. Other variables, including gender, marital status, and rural upbringing, did not have an important influence in predicting vertical education-occupational mismatch. One of the key recommendations was the need to strengthen career guidance systems at the secondary school level during the course of study.