An Economic Viability Framework for Digital Twin Adoption in Small-Scale Nigerian Manufacturing Industries

Digital twins are emerging as a key enabler for real-time monitoring, process optimisation and predictive maintenance as Industry 4.0 technologies continue to reshape modern manufacturing. Although digital twins have demonstrated significant potential globally, their adoption in Nigeria's small-scale manufacturing sector remains limited, not because the technology is incompatible, but because there is no structured economic justification framework suited to the financial realities of these enterprises. This paper proposes an economic viability framework that links fundamental engineering economics concepts, including net present value (NPV), break-even analysis, return on investment (ROI) and sensitivity analysis, to digital twin deployment in small-scale Nigerian manufacturing. The framework is organised around three pillars: capital investment and cost disaggregation, operational cost savings and productivity gains, and long-term economic sustainability under Nigeria-specific constraints, including energy infrastructure instability, foreign exchange exposure and technical workforce sustainability costs. It is grounded in Diffusion of Innovations theory and the Technology Acceptance Model, which explain why economically viable technologies still experience adoption challenges in resource-constrained environments. The framework is illustrated using a hypothetical but representative small-scale metal fabrication enterprise. Under conservative assumptions, the results indicate a baseline NPV of ₦8.27 million, a break-even period of about five years, and a seven-year ROI of 205.2 per cent. After incorporating all three Nigeria-specific constraints, the adjusted NPV remains positive, confirming economic viability through a structured, constraint-aware decision-support framework. Policy implications and directions for future empirical validation are proposed.