An Empirical Investigation of the Relationship between Agricultural Inputs and Agricultural Output in Nigeria

This study examines the relationship between agricultural inputs and agricultural output in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022, utilizing time series data sourced from the World Development Indicators and the CBN Statistical Bulletin. The specific objectives were to analyze the impact of agricultural expenditure, fertilizer consumption, and arable land proxies for agricultural inputs on crop production proxy for agricultural output in Nigeria. The data analysis techniques employed include descriptive statistics, unit root tests, bounds cointegration, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation method, and residual diagnostics tests. The ADF unit root tests reveal a mix of I(1) and I(0) series, indicating that the variables differ in their levels of integration. Evidence of cointegration was established, suggesting a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables. The ARDL results indicate that agricultural expenditure has a significant positive effect on crop production in Nigeria, revealing that a unit increase in agricultural expenditure increases crop production; access to arable land has a positive significant effect on crop production, indicating that an increase in access to arable land increases crop production in Nigeria. Furthermore, the results show that fertilizers consumption has a positive and statistically significant effect on crop production in Nigeria. This suggests that a unit increase in fertilizers consumption increases crop production in Nigeria. Owing to the findings, this study concludes that agricultural expenditure, access to arable land and fertilizer consumption enhances crop production of the Nigerian economy. Thus, it is recommended among others that Policymakers, should implement sustained and targeted agricultural expenditure programs focused on infrastructure, research, and farmer access to arable land to ensure long-term productivity growth.