Analysis of cereal production in Algeria

Analysis of cereal production allows one to make decisions about the importance of certain products and the water resources. Improving cereal production is crucial in developing the standard of living in Algeria. Actually, it should be part of any future strategy for the country. Most of the arable land in Algeria is in a Mediterranean climate, where droughts are common and rainfall is distributed unevenly throughout the year. Research on the impact of climate variability and irrigation on cereal production is necessary due to the effects on the uneven performance of crops in Algeria. The study considered here is based on statistical methods to model the production of durum wheat, bread wheat, barley and oats. The first method used is principal component analysis. It was applied to classify the data in order to determine the relative importance of the various regions for the evaluation of cereal production. The results exhibit an increasing trend in the cereal production on the period from 2009 to 2012. The 2012 cereal harvest in Algeria proved to be the second highest ever recorded, after that of 2009, despite an unusual period of snow in February. It appears that durum wheat production was explained jointly by precipitation and irrigation. However, the variations in the production of the common wheat, oat and barley can only be explained by precipitation. Agriculture currently depends mainly on precipitation rather than irrigation. Modern irrigation systems could increase production. Therefore, if agricultural production is to be improved, important agricultural irrigation methods are needed to mitigate the impact of climate variability in each agricultural area, mainly in the southern regions of the country. Key words: cereal, irrigation, rainfall, regression, production, wheat, oat, barley