Analyzing neonatal deaths in Zimbabwe using box-jenkins arima models

Using annual time series data on neonatal deaths in Zimbabwe from 1966 to 2018, we model and forecast number of neonatal deaths over the next 25 years using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Neonatal Deaths (ND) series is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (8, 2, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study reveal that the numbers of neonatal deaths per year are expected to decline sharply in the next 25 years. In order to keep on reducing neonatal deaths in Zimbabwe, the study offered a four-fold policy prescription.