Anticipatory Skill Ecosystems and Workforce Resilience under Technological Uncertainty: A Qualitative-Dominant Mixed-Methods Study from Sidama, Ethiopia

Abstract Low- and middle-income nations face rapid labor market automation, yet skill development remains reactive responding only after displacement occurs. This study introduces and empirically investigates Anticipatory Skill Ecosystems (ASE) institutional networks of firms, state agencies, training providers, and community organizations that collectively anticipate technological change and proactively adapt skill provision. Using a qualitative-dominant explanatory sequential mixed-methods design in Sidama, Ethiopia, we collected data across 50 enterprises and 350 workers via 83 semi-structured interviews, three focus groups, and surveys. Analyses employed SPSS (descriptives, correlations, reliability) and R (multilevel modeling, EFA, CFA). Qualitative data underwent reflexive thematic analysis. Psychometric validation of the ASEI (24 items, four dimensions) demonstrated excellent properties: EFA confirmed four-factor structure (68.4% variance); CFA showed good fit (CFI=0.96, TLI=0.95, RMSEA=0.049); convergent validity established (AVE≥0.52, CR≥0.78); discriminant validity confirmed (HTMT<0.85). Multilevel analysis revealed ASEI positively associated with workforce resilience (γ=0.43, p<0.001), with significant cross-level interaction for education (γ=0.29, p=0.006) ASE associations stronger for primary-educated workers. Gender did not moderate this relationship (p=0.842). Three enabling mechanisms identified qualitatively: multi-stakeholder foresight panels, embedded industry-TVET governance, and flexible micro-credential pathways. Technology adoption cycles (mean=2.1 years) significantly outpaced curriculum revision cycles (mean=19.4 months). Four enterprise archetypes emerged: emergent, transitional, responsive, and anticipatory. Building collective institutional foresight capacity is more strongly associated with workforce resilience than accelerating individual training. Policy implications include delegated micro-credentialing authority; performance-based financing linked to early warning indicators, and phased reforms to Ethiopia's TVET governance.