Assessing Bioclimatic Severity and Traditional Ecological Knowledge for Climate Change Adaptation in Senegal's Agro-Sylvo-Pastoral Zone

This study, conducted in Senegal’s Agro-Sylvo-Pastoral Zone, contributes to the assessment of the severity of bioclimatic conditions, as well as community perceptions in the context of climate change. The Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) were extracted from satellite databases for the period 1984-2025, with a focus on the rainy season from June to October. Information was also collected from 240 pastoralists and agropastoralists, distributed across five pastoral units (PU), to complement the satellite data. On the one hand, a statistical analysis, using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), quartiles, and the Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test, was performed to characterise climatic variability and trends. On the other hand, a multi-criteria analysis was applied using the Analytical Hierarchy Procedure (AHP) to map the severity of bioclimatic conditions. The results showed a statistically significant increase in precipitation, temperature, and NDVI, with successive SEN slopes of 2.448 mm/year, 0.017 °C/year, and 0.006 °C/year. A statistically non-significant trend in ETa was also observed. The resulting map highlighted a north-south severity gradient, distinguishing three sectors. The southernmost sector, representing 33% of the area, is characterised by the lowest severity. The central sector, representing 35% of the area, is covered by medium severity, while the northernmost sector recorded the highest severity (32% of the area). These results, combined with community perceptions, allow for a better approach to various adaptation strategies, such as modifying the transhumance calendar, cultivating fodder crops, and practising subsistence farming, among others.