ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON FLOOD RISK: TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL THRESHOLDS FOR SEASONAL FLOOD PREDICTION IN GOMBE STATE, NIGERIA

This study examines the effects of some weather parameters on seasonal flooding in Gombe State, Nigeria, over the period of thirty years (1994–2024). The study used secondary climatic data obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet). The research also employed both qualitative and quantitative analytical methods such as descriptive statistics, Mann-Kendall trend tests, Sen’s slope estimation, correlation analysis, and logistic regression to assess long-term climatic trends, and evaluate historical flood events. The findings revealed that there was a significant warming in the study area with a maximum and minimum temperatures increase ranged between 1.2°C and 1.8°C respectively, alongside a 16.7% rise in annual rainfall concentrated in peak months. The result further discovered that there was strong correlation relationship between July–August rainfall and flood occurrence, with critical thresholds identified at 350 mm for August and 500 mm for combined July–August rainfall amounts. The study documented 14 flood events which took place between 1994 and 2024, including three major floods in 2013, 2016, and 2019, with flood frequency doubling from 0.3 to 0.6 events per year over the study period. The research concluded that Gombe State has experienced intensified hydro-climatic conditions that elevate flood risk. It proposes integrated, climate-informed adaptation strategies across short-, medium-, and long-term timescales to enhance resilience and support sustainable flood risk management in the study area.