Assessing Translocation Success or Failure of the African Buffalo ( <i>Syncerus caffer</i> ) in Post‐War Mozambique Using Species Distribution Modelling

ABSTRACT Post‐war Mozambique provides a rare setting to evaluate ecological models of African buffalo ( Syncerus caffer ) translocation outcomes. Following severe declines caused by armed conflict, translocations were implemented to restore ecological functioning. We tested whether Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) with MaxEnt, combined with Mahalanobis climatic distance, can retrospectively explain success or failure and guide future planning. Using 369 filtered occurrence records (1994–2014) and seven uncorrelated ecogeographic variables, we generated Suitability Habitat Indices (SHIs) and assessed model performance (AUC = 0.957; TSS = 0.804). Translocation outcomes were compared between origin and destination sites using ΔSHI (SHIdestination − SHIorigin) and climatic dissimilarity. Successful translocations, defined as short‐term establishment (survival, adaptation, reproduction), were linked to positive or near‐zero ΔSHI values and often supported by interventions such as water provisioning or dam construction. Failures occurred when high‐SHI sources were moved to low‐SHI destinations without ecological compensation. Climatic distance provided supplementary explanatory power but showed weak correlation with outcomes, underscoring the primacy of SHI‐based assessments. Importantly, movements across Mozambique's six zooregions revealed that intra‐zooregional translocations were more feasible, while inter‐zooregional transfers exposed buffalo to novel ecological thresholds requiring intensive management. These findings demonstrate that SDM‐derived SHIs, integrated with climatic distance and zooregional boundaries, offer a transparent framework for evaluating translocation feasibility. Embedding SHI modelling within adaptive management and ecological engineering is essential for long‐term restoration success in fragmented savanna landscapes.