Attributing child undernutrition in Burkina Faso to climate change-induced crop yield losses

Abstract Climate change threatens food security in low-income countries dependent on rainfed, smallholder agriculture; however, its historical impact on undernutrition remains unknown. We integrate a machine learning crop model with an epidemiological model to estimate the contribution of historical climate change to child undernutrition in Burkina Faso. We find that between 1993 and 2021, 2.7% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1.2–4.2%) of stunting and 6.2% (95% UI: 3.5–9.2%) of underweight cases in children can be attributed to climate change-induced reductions in maize, millet, and sorghum yields. Attributable burdens are higher for severe forms of undernutrition, amounting to 4.8% (95% UI: 2.0–7.3) of severe stunting and 8.0% (95% UI: 2.5–13.1) of severe underweight. These findings add to the growing evidence on the health impacts of climate change and underscore the need for mitigation and adaptation to protect child health and wellbeing.