Average R values for 2018 and 2019 for all 37 Nigerian states.

Incidence-based (green)—the six states which met the equal to or more than 40 case thresholds. Covariate-based (purple)—the 31 states which did not meet the threshold and had R predicted using the best fit model. State label colour shows which states had an average R of R = >1 (black) and R = <1 (orange) [44].