Reproducible analysis pipeline coupling quantile-random-forest digital soil mapping, Monte Carlo Sys–Verheye ALES-Arid land evaluation, and counterfactual gap decomposition over the Beni Suef alluvial floodplain (Middle Egypt). Independent ground-truth validation against a 993-point Sentinel-2 cropland survey (March 2025) is included. Companion code to ElNaggar et al. (2026), Geoderma Regional (submitted). Replace placeholder DOI with the journal-issued DOI at acceptance. Add co-authors and ORCIDs before pushing the GitHub release that triggers Zenodo archiving.