Beyond Aspirational Commitments: Evaluating the Implementation of the Sectoral Mitigation Actions of the Lagos State Climate Action Plan (2020–2025) Using the Hale et al 2021 Framework

IMPORTANT NOTE: This version of this article has not been peer-reviewed, it is still in pre-print. For this reason, our result and conclusion should be less regarded. Climate change poses a critical global challenge, and as international agreements procrastinates, sub-national actors like cities have emerged to address governance gaps. Lagos State represents a focal point for these climate challenges in West Africa. This study evaluates the progress of the Lagos State Climate Action Plan specifically within the periods (2020–2025) and explores the applicability of the Hale et al. (2021) evaluation framework. Utilizing a digital intelligence and AI via Feedly Pro and Gemini Pro 3 respectively, a qualitative assessment was conducted across the transport, waste, and energy sectors. The findings indicate unprecedented implementation in the transport sector, marked by the operationalization of light rail lines, though last-mile inefficiencies constrain actual emissions reductions. The waste sector struggles with historical policy volatility and limited recycling rates despite recent structural outputs. Conversely, the energy sector achieved a structural paradigm shift by legally decoupling from the national grid to establish an independent electricity market. The study concludes that while Lagos successfully shifted from aspirational commitments to major physical outputs, an "ambition bias" persists where targets outpace substantive environmental impacts, necessitating future empirical research.