Sources of data used to calibrate the baseline model were in A) HIV prevalence among women attending prenatal clinics [46] (dashed lines); HIV prevalence measurement in household-based surveys (crosses) [36], [47]; estimates of HIV incidence in household-based surveys [48] (dot). In B) district-wide ART coverage statistics [49] were used to calibrate baseline trends of ART recruitment. Multiple sets of parameters that were consistent with these data were identified [72] and generated model trajectories of baseline prevalence (red lines) and baseline incidence (grey lines) a sample of which is shown here (Supplementary Material S1).