Can Trade and Remittances Flows Survive COVID-19 in Africa? Evidence from Symmetric Volatility Model

In this study, volatility in trade and remittances flows to Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic for the period 2004M1 to 2020M11 was modeled. The study evaluated the volatility using the symmetric GARCH (1, 1) univariate volatility model. Results revealed that a shock to exports during the COVID-19 pandemic was temporary and its recovery was quick. On the other hand, a shock to remittances was more enduring and persistent; and its variance reverted slowly. The study recommended that policies to promote export, especially of COVID-19 protective gears be implemented while efforts should be made to lower the cost of receiving remittances.