Civil War and the Transition to Motherhood: A Study on the Effects of Armed Conflict on First Birth Fertility in Uganda

Armed conflict has severe consequences for the population. Ongoing violence reshapes the social and material conditions in which individuals pursue and achieve their goals, potentially disrupting life-course trajectories, including the transition to motherhood. However, evidence on the effect of armed conflict on pivotal moments like the transition to motherhood is scarce and largely inconclusive, with results pointing in different directions. This paper contributes to this knowledge by examining the relationships between exposure to armed conflict and the transition to motherhood in Uganda, using individual level survey data from the Demographic and Health Surveys and spatiotemporal conflict data from Uppsala Conflict Data Program Georeferenced Event Dataset. Uganda represents an important case to study as high levels of inequality and persistent civil conflicts have affected the population in terms of access to healthcare, which may impact reproduction. Results from fixed-effects Cox proportional hazards models reveal that there is a higher risk of transitioning to first birth associated with exposure to armed conflict in the prior 12 months. Results were robust to alternative specifications of distance to conflict, the use of logged conflict events, and alternative adjustments for geographic characteristics. While the data did not distinguish between wanted or unwanted births, the prevalence of sexual violence during conflict could have resulted in an increase in unwanted pregnancies. Conflict may also increase the demand for children in ways that promote early childbearing. Concluding policy suggestions are aimed at strengthening reproductive autonomy, supporting young mothers, and efforts toward building positive peace. These results provide new evidence on the demographic consequences of armed conflict and the determinants of first birth fertility in an understudied low-income country with repeated cycles of violence.