Climate Change Adaptation through Fruit Tree-Based Agroforestry: Evidence from Sofi and Erer Districts, Harari Regional State, Ethiopia

Abstract Climate change poses a significant challenge to rain-fed agricultural systems in semi-arid regions of Ethiopia, where livelihoods depend heavily on climate-sensitive resources. This study assessed the role of fruit tree-based agroforestry systems in supporting climate change adaptation and resilience among smallholder farmers in Sofi and Erer Woredas, Harari Regional State. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining household surveys (n = 152), focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and 30 years (1991–2020) of meteorological data. Farmers reported strong perceptions of climate change, with 93% indicating increasing temperature and 94% reporting declining and more variable rainfall, findings consistent with observed climatic trends showing a 0.4°C temperature increase and high rainfall variability. A composite Climate Resilience Index (CRI) revealed higher adaptive capacity in agroforestry systems (CRI = 0.85) compared to monoculture systems (CRI = 0.39). Agroforestry systems also exhibited moderate species diversity (H′ = 1.69), dominated by Mangifera indica and Carica papaya. Econometric analysis confirmed that tree density, species richness, income diversification, and farming system type are significantly associated with higher resilience (R² = 0.71). Overall, the results suggest that fruit tree-based agroforestry is strongly associated with improved climate resilience through livelihood diversification, improved soil conditions, and enhanced system stability in semi-arid environments.