Climate Change, Financial Development, and Structural Factors: Gendered Impacts on Women's Agricultural Employment in Nigeria and Kenya

Climate change disproportionately affects women, especially in sectors like agriculture, where exposure to environmental stressors interacts with persistent gender gaps. This study quantifies the gendered impacts of climate change and financial development on women's agricultural employment in Nigeria and Kenya, using annual secondary data from 1991 to 2022. Anchored in theories of gendered institutions, capabilities, and structural transformation, the analysis employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Newey–West heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-consistent estimates using harmonised secondary data obtained from the World Bank, World Development Indicators (WDI), FAOSTAT, and the Global Economy. Climate exposure is captured through land temperature change, while financial development, urbanisation, and education proxy structural and human capital dynamics. The results reveal country-specific pathways. In Nigeria, women's participation in agriculture declined steadily with rising urbanisation and financial deepening, indicating that finance-led and structural transformation displaced women towards non-farm activities. In Kenya, higher temperatures, financial development, and education have all significantly and negatively influenced women's agricultural employment, reflecting climate stress compounded by finance-driven exclusion and human capital-induced sectoral shifts. The interaction between temperature and finance was insignificant, suggesting that existing financial systems have yet to buffer women against climate shocks. These findings confirm that climate stress and financial systems jointly shape women's economic opportunities, consistent with the theoretical expectation that institutional design determines gender outcomes. The study provides evidence to inform policies that integrate Gender Action Plans (GAPs), devolved small-grant facilities, and climate-smart investments that reduce women's time burdens and enhance resilience.