Climate-Driven Habitat Suitability Modeling for the Vulnerable Species Euryops pinifolius A. Rich in Ethiopia: Implications for Conservation

Globally, rare and threatened species are a high conservation priority due to their increased risk of extinction. Euryops pinifolius is a vulnerable plant species found within restricted ranges in the Afroalpine Ecosystem of Ethiopia. The species has been seriously threatened due to overexploitation for fuelwood collection by the communities living adjacent to the mountains. Given the socio-economic importance as well as the increasing vulnerability of the species, it is important to understand how extinction may be prevented in the face of climate change. The present study, therefore, aimed to model and map habitat suitability of the species under climate change scenarios in Ethiopia. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the current and future distribution of E. pinifolius in Ethiopia under different climate scenarios. The results demonstrated excellent simulation quality by the MaxEnt model (AUC = 0.985). The major environmental factors predicting the current and future distribution of E.pinifolius were Mean Temperature of the Driest Quarter (Bio9), Altitude (Alt), Vegetation Cover (Veg), Precipitation Seasonality (Bio15), and Mean Temperature of the Wettest Quarter (Bio8). Under current climatic conditions, the potential distribution of E. pinifolius is primarily concentrated in the Ethiopian highlands, especially in the northern, northwestern, and central parts of the country. We therefore recommend that both current and projected future suitable areas be given conservation priority to safeguard this species.