Climate Metrics for Cultural Heritage: Modelling Conditions for Pilgrimage in Ethiopia

Climate and weather influences human actions, including our cultural practices. Even though the effects of climate change on intangible heritage have been widely discussed there has been little work that links specific drivers of environmental change to impacts or effects. This study develops and tests a set of climate metrics relevant for pilgrimages, focusing its analysis on Ethiopia. Our study assesses the sensitivity of climate metrics to the time period studied using observed data (ERA5 reanalysis and CHIRPS) and the ability of three GCMs (HadGEM3-GC31-MM, CMCC-ESM2 and NorESM2-MM) to capture climate metrics relevant to pilgrimages within the dry season (Bega). Results show the importance of adjusting the length of time so it is relevant to the process or social practice being studied, which might not map onto the three-month seasons traditionally used in climate research. Three of the six climate metrics assessed (minimum and maximum daily temperature and the number of rain days greater 1 mm) were successfully captured by the GCMs. This means these metrics could be used to assess future impacts of climate change on the climate experienced by pilgrims in Ethiopia.