Climate migration

Is climate change a significant driver of South-North migration intentions? The literature on migration intentions has focused on a wide range of micro, meso, and macro-level factors. Knowledge on the effect of environmental conditions, however, remains scarce and contradictory. In this pre-registered study we attempt to make two contributions. First, we unpack a theoretical mechanism plausibly connecting climate change with migration intentions, namely job insecurity. We expect changing environmental conditions to shape migration intentions especially when affecting economic livelihoods, and when economic exit options are scarce. Second, we rely on survey experiments and choicebased conjoint analysis in Nigeria to causally disentangle environmental effects from other push and pull factors that are typically intertwined in observational studies.