Climate prediction of El Niño malaria epidemics in north-west Tanzania-3

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Taken from "Climate prediction of El Niño malaria epidemics in north-west Tanzania"

malariajournal.com

Malaria Journal 2007;6():162-162.

Published online 6 Dec 2007

PMCID:PMC2228309.

t the upper and lower quartiles of the 63 DEMETER ensembles. The ends of the whiskers show the minimum and maximum values of the DEMETER re-forecasts. First, the DEMETER forecasts of maximum temperature anomalies for the Aug-Jan season are compared to the observed temperature and malaria anomalies (a). Second, the DEMETER forecasts of total rainfall during the same period are compared to the corresponding observed rainfall and malaria anomalies (b). Third, the DEMETER forecasts of total rainfall during the second rainy season (February starting date) are compared to the corresponding observed rainfall and malaria anomalies (c). Fourth, the six-month DEMETER forecasts of total rainfall during the same period are combined with the observed maximum temperature anomalies during the first rainy season using the 'C3' linear regression model. These resulting malaria forecasts anomalies are compared to the weather observation predicted malaria and observed malaria anomalies (d). The anomalies were standardized by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation.