Climate-Related Risks and Agricultural Yield Assessment in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin

Climate change and variability pose significant threats to agricultural production, particularly in regions heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture like Senegal. The problem addressed in this study revolves around the impact of climate-related risks on agricultural yields in the Senegalese Groundnut Basin as a key agricultural region. Daily rainfall, temperatures, and yield over 1991–2020 were used. The data were analyzed using multiple regression, trend analysis, and correlation approaches. The results indicate that the overall seasonal precipitation increases over time (98 mm in the north and 103 mm in the south). However, we found that the south Groundnut Basin has a much slower seasonal precipitation rate than the northern zone. Our results also show that the northern zone exhibits a more consistent and predictable growing season, with onset and offset, in contrast with the southern zone, which shows higher variability. The analysis further reveals that both the northern and southern zones are experiencing a warming trend, with the southern zone showing a more pronounced increase in maximum temperatures (+0.7 °C) than to the northern zone (+0.4 °C). Estimates from the regression analysis revealed that total seasonal precipitation and maximum temperature positively and significantly influence groundnut, millet, and maize yields in the northern and southern zones. All the other weather-related parameters have different influences depending on the zone. These findings highlight the heterogeneous nature of the study area and the significant role climatic factors play in crop yield variability in the Groundnut Basin. Understanding these influences is crucial for developing targeted agricultural strategies and climate adaptation measures to mitigate risks and enhance regional productivity. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers and farmers aiming to improve crop resilience and sustain agricultural outputs amidst changing climatic conditions.