Climate Variability, Vegetation Dynamics, Crop Production Trends, and Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies in South Darfur State, Sudan

Climate change poses a significant threat to rain-fed agricultural systems in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in Sudan, where livelihoods largely depend on climate-sensitive agriculture. This study assessed long-term trends in climate variables, vegetation dynamics, crop production, and farmers' adaptation strategies in South Darfur State, Sudan. Climatic data, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and crop production records covering the period 1992–2021 were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator. In addition, a household survey of 180 farmers was conducted to examine socio-economic characteristics, agricultural practices, and climate change adaptation strategies. The results revealed significant increasing trends in NDVI (τ = 0.61, p < 0.001), maximum temperature (τ = 0.32, p = 0.01), and annual rainfall (τ = 0.29, p = 0.03), indicating notable changes in vegetation conditions and climate over the study period. Among the major crops, millet showed a significant declining trend (τ = −0.26, p = 0.04), whereas groundnut, sesame, and roselle exhibited no significant long-term trends despite considerable interannual variability. The decline in millet production is likely associated with increasing temperature, rainfall variability, and the prolonged socio-political conflict that disrupted agricultural activities in the region. Survey results showed that farmers have adopted several adaptation measures, including changing crop types, practicing crop rotation and agroforestry, using drought-tolerant crop varieties, improving soil fertility management, and adjusting planting dates based on indigenous knowledge. These practices have likely contributed to the relatively stable production of cash crops such as groundnut, sesame, and roselle. The findings demonstrate that while climatic conditions and vegetation productivity have generally improved, crop responses remain species-specific and are strongly influenced by both environmental and socio-economic factors. Strengthening climate-smart agriculture, improving access to extension services and climate information, and supporting locally developed adaptation strategies will be essential for enhancing agricultural resilience and ensuring sustainable food production in South Darfur under future climate change.